Opinions have been fairly divided for the past few weeks and and the Canadiens are keeping their choice hidden from the media. Most hockey insiders believe the first pick will be Kingston Frontenacs Captain Shane Wright. But others also believe it could also be US born Logan Cooley or Slovakia born Juraj Slafkovsky.
However the site Hockey Prospecting, created by Byron Bader, offers an analytical model with the goal of defining a player's chances of becoming an NHL star. From this interesting statistic from Bader he's recently shared the results of his model and the big surprise is about Slovakia's Juraj Slafkovsky.
According to Byron Bader's statistics Juraj Slafkovsky is only the 16th most likely prospect in the 2022 draft to become an NHL star. Meaning the Montreal Canadiens could be taking a big gamble picking Slafkovsky over Wright or even Cooley. The Canadiens aren't afraid of taking a gamble in 2018 the Canadiens drafted Jesperi Kotkaniemi 3rd overall when many didn't have Kotkaniemi in their top 10 passing players like Filip Zadina and Brady Tkachuk.
Unfortunately for the Montreal Canadiens Jesperi Kotkaniemi didn't turn out to be the player the Habs were hoping and worse part he's not even with the Canadiens after signing a offer-sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes. Brady Tkachuk on the other hand the player the Canadiens should of taken is now the captain of the Ottawa Senators.
Bader therefore ranks Slafkovsky as the 16th best prospect available and compares him to Valeri Nichushkin and Jesse Puljujarvi, two European players who were drafted early but did not become NHL stars. Bader also had Shane Wright on top of his list but surprise second choice in defenceman Simon Nemec and Logan Cooley rounds out his top three.
Of course, this is only an analytical list, but it is still interesting to see how Slafkovsky compares to Nichushkin. With that said and as a Habs fan myself I still hope the Canadiens decide to take Shane Wright on July 7th as I believe having the one two punch of Nick Suzuki and Shane Wright as the Canadiens top two Centers could definitely help towards building a contender again in Montreal.