Plus/Minus is Sketchy at Best- Can It Predict the Playoffs?

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Steve
April 11, 2022 (9:28 PM)

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Anyone who follows hockey analytics knows that the +/- stat doesn't actually tell you much about a player. After all, a player is but one of six players on the ice. He could play a great game, yet still be a victim of poor defense, poor checking, poor goal tending, etc. It is, however, a stat that appears on all stat pages. So is there any use for it? Yes there is.
Look at the top scorer for any team in the NHL, if a team's most prolific scorer has a double digit positive +/-, that team will compete for the playoffs. If a team's most prolific scorer has a very low positive or negative +/-, that team will dwell in the cellar. Sounds silly, right? Well, so is +/-.
Let's go.
Florida Panthers' number one scorer is Jonathan Huberdau. His +/- is +34.
Auston Mathews of the Leafs is +16.
Steven Stamkos leads the Lightning and has a +14. Sebastian Aho for the Canes has a +15.
Our much beloved former Hawk, now Ranger, Artemi Panarin is a +17.
Mikko Rantanen of rival Colorado has a solid +33.
Kirill Kaprizov of the surprising Wild has a +22.
Johnny Gaudrreau's +/- is a whopping +54 and his teammate Matthew Tkachuk is +47.
Edmonton's twin headed monster, McDavid and Draisaitl, have a +22 and +19 respectively.
Of course that all makes sense. Why would leading scorers have negative +/-. They are clearly playing a role in putting the puck in the opponents net. Well, let's look at leading scorers on teams at the bottom.
Our own Chicago Blackhawks have three players who really exemplify this. Patrick Kane is -18, Alex DeBrincat is -15 and Seth Jones is -34. Jones seems more understandable since he is a defenseman and plays the most minutes on the team. Comparing him to a scoring defenseman on a decent team really shows the problem. Roman Josi, leading scorer for Nashville has a +22 and plays a similar role to Jones.
Montreal's Nick Suzuki is -23.
Seatle's Yanni Gourde is -13.
Timo Meier from San Jose is -1.
Arizona's Clayton Kellar is positive, but only +3.
So, +/- is relatively useless, but it can predict the playoffs and which teams have a lot of problems and will be drafting high in the next draft.

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