A Closer Look at the Blackhawks' Draft Lottery Odds for 2024

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Janessa Ladouceur
April 5, 2024 (0:21)

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The Chicago Blackhawks' probabilities for the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery have been analyzed.

The Chicago Blackhawks are left with just seven games for this season. Once again, they find themselves positioned near the lower ranks of the league standings, which grants them a better shot at the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery.

Although Ryan Donato and a few other players have shown impressive skills, the Blackhawks are yet again concluding the season as one of the weakest teams in the league. However, this position does offer them an improved opportunity to secure the first overall draft selection.

Where do the Blackhawks stand?

With a record of 22-48-5, the Chicago Blackhawks find themselves in the 31st position in the league standings. This standing would provide them with a 13.5 percent chance of obtaining the first overall draft pick. The lottery odds are determined by considering the end-of-season rankings, favoring the weakest teams in the league.

The Chicago Blackhawks emerged as the victors of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery, despite having the third-best odds of winning at 11.5 percent. This achievement surpassed the Anaheim Ducks, who had the highest odds at 18.5 percent, and the Columbus Blue Jackets, who held a 13.5 percent chance of winning.

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The NHL lottery system introduces a significant element of chance when it comes to winning the grand prize. Despite teams competing in an extensive 82-game season, finishing in last place only provides an 18.5 percent opportunity to secure the No. 1 pick and select a player of generational talent. Although these odds may be the highest in the league, it is important to acknowledge that finishing at the bottom does not guarantee the attainment of the top pick.

The NHL made revisions to its draft rules in 2022, resulting in some significant changes. One of these changes is that if a team wins the lottery, they are limited to moving up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft. As a result, only the top 11 seeded teams have the opportunity to make the first overall selection.

As the schedule approaches its end, it can be reasonably predicted that the Blackhawks will probably secure the second-best odds for the NHL Draft Lottery, trailing only the San Jose Sharks. San Jose currently holds 42 points with eight games left, while Chicago has 49 points with seven games remaining. The Anaheim Ducks, with 54 points and six games left, are five points ahead of the Blackhawks in the standings.

Sports are so unpredictable. The Blackhawks might finish last if the Sharks win a few games and Chicago doesn't perform well. But then again, there's a chance that Chicago could come out ahead of Anaheim.

Regardless of lottery results, fans should always root for their team. The Blackhawks surprised everyone by winning the Connor Bedard sweepstakes with the third-best odds. Similarly, in 2007, they landed the first overall pick without having the best odds.