Blackhawks Need a Balanced Approach in Rebuild and Beyond

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Steve
April 1, 2022 (12:09)

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After the 2017-2018 season, Chicago Blackhawks fans saw the championship window close. They went from a team who had 109 points in 2016-17 to a team who earned a mere 76 points in 2017-2018. Were they ready for a rebuild? Was a retool in order? Due to a precarious cap situation, a true rebuild was not really in the cards for the Blackhawks. Stan Bowman famously overpaid players and gave too many of them Non-Move or Trade clauses. This completely tied management's hands and let to some suspect moves by Bowman.
Fortunately Duncan Keith chose to waive his clause to move closer to home. Brent Seabrook went on LTIR which allowed for his contract to be moved and saved the Hawks a few more years of an exorbitant contract. Corey Crawford retired from the game. That just left Jonathan Toews' and Patrick Kane's $10.5 million contracts to work through. Oh wait, the Blackhawks signed Seth Jones to a long term contract worth $9.5 million per year. So, three players represent 37% of the total cap space. That is unacceptable in a rebuild, or if a team wants to be a Cup contender.

So, what does a balanced cap look like? Look no further than the best teams in the NHL today. The Carolina Hurricanes have a much more balanced roster. Sebastian Aho is the highest paid player at $8.4. Everyone else is between $7 and the league minimum, with the best players falling in the $7-$2 million range. They have an outstanding defense, but the top player is earning $5.3 million. The distribution allows the Hurricanes to roll four good offensive lines and three defensive ones.

The Florida Panthers are also a much more balanced team. They are paying $10 million for their goalie, which is likely an overpay in the long run, but they need a solid player in net because the defense is not one of the league's best. In fact, their defense only represents 20% of the total cap space with the top player only earning $3.5 million. By comparison, the Blackhawks defense is sketchy at best yet have three players over the $3.5 marker. Offensively, the Panthers have seven players making between $6.5 and $3 million. This ensures production deep into their lines. This is a recipe to win the cup. In two years, when major contracts close, it will be interesting to see if they've learned lessons from other teams who handled a post Cup run poorly.

Another team that seems not to have learned the lesson of a balanced roster is the Toronto Maple Leafs. They are electric offensively, yet wilt in the playoffs. Looking at their roster, it's easy to see why. They are so top heavy in offensive contracts. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares earn $33.54 million per year, or 41% of their cap space. They are spending minimal on their goalie which has been a problem, and the same for their defense. Paying top end players too much handcuffs the team and ensures they can't get the necessary pieces to win.

To find out where it went wrong for the Blackhawks, look at the team post 2014-2015 season. During their final Cup run, the salaries were distributed more evenly across the team. This was the final season that Kane and Toews each made $6.3 million. Next year that would go to $10 million with NMC. Obviously, they were rewarded for their previous play, but it did mean the Hawks would have difficulty building around them in the future. (Bowman liked issuing NMC as if they popped out of a Pez dispenser) Five other players on the team had cap hits of around $5 million. The highest paid defenseman at the time earned $5.8 million. Over the next few years, the Hawks paid Kane and Toews $10.5, Seabrook $6.8, and Brandon Saad $6 million. Finally, before being fired, Bowman added Jones $9.5 that kicks in next season. The three remaining contracts, Kane, Toews and Jones, will mean that it is difficult to truly blow this team up and start over. Kyle Davidson will have to be clever.

To win, teams will do about anything in terms of cap to bring home a Stanley Cup; however, that comes with a price for the following years. Navigating that effectively is what separates good GMs from poor ones. Hopefully, Kyle Davidson can clean up Bowman's mess and make the Chicago Blackhawks competitive for years to come. To do so, Davidson should be more balanced and restrictive in terms of issuing NMC.