Seth Jones provides value at his current cap hit, but the next 8 years is a different story
When the Chicago Blackhawks went out and traded for Seth Jones and subsequently signed him to an 8-year, $76M deal this summer, Hawks fans rejoiced, as the move appeared to signify that the organization believed that they had the pieces with which to contend. Fast forward 7 months and the results tell a different story.
Jones, like many other top pairing defensemen, plays big minutes. In fact, he has never played as much in his career as he has in Chicago. His previous career high for ATOI was 25:49 back in 2018-19 with his former team, the Columbus Blue Jackets. So far this season, Jones is averaging 26:10 of ice time per game. That said, his shooting percentage is the lowest it has been in 6 seasons and his giveaways to takeaways ratio is almost 2:1, meaning that he gives the puck away twice as much as he retrieves it. The question has to be asked; did the Hawks make a mistake in giving Jones the term and dollars that they did this summer?
The 27-year-old is in the last year of his current deal, earning just $5.4M against the cap. To be honest, he's certainly above average for defenders in that price range. However, when he begins his new deal in 2022-23, he'll be 28 years old and will be signed through his 35-year-old season at $9.5M per season. This contract has "future buyout" written all over it.
The one area where Jones appears to thrive is with the man advantage. The Arlington, TX native is on pace to exceed 20 power play points this season. His Corsi and Fenwick numbers have also improved over the past two seasons. The Hawks appear to have entrusted the offensive defenseman with the vast majority of the offensive zone starts, limiting him to just 37.9% of his starts taking place in the D-zone as well.
That's all well and good, but if you're paying your top defenseman almost $10M per season, shouldn't you be able to trust him at both ends of the ice?
Listen. I'm all for taking a big swing and landing a big fish, but I firmly believe that if the Hawks wanted to shell out $9.5M per season, on top of the lofty price they paid to acquire Seth Jones, they'd have been better off spending those assets and that cap space elsewhere. That's not really a knock on Jones, who is a fine NHL defenseman. I just believe that he's more of a number 2 or 3 than he is a number 1.
At the end of the day, you want your top guy to play big minutes in all situations and you want to be able to trust him in all 3 zones. Jones, to me, simply isn't that guy. He's a specialist, and specialists are good, but they're not $9.5M good. Just my 2 cents.
